Average Value Theory

Let's talk about another way to refine your drafting. Average value theory is based on the fact that your projections will always be wrong (or if you want a nicer way to say it, your projections will contain a margin of error). This information from Chris Annunziata and Wade Iuele goes into greater detail.

"With every subjective decision you make in developing a projection, there is a possibility of error; and the greater the number of variables on which you base your projections, the greater the number of potential errors. Therefore, creating player projections might not be the best way to quantify player values for use with a VBD system. Each time you make a subjective decision regarding numerical values, variables, and calculations, you expose yourself to a potential for error.

AVT assumes that over a course of time, actual FP scored by each position remain fairly constant, independent of the player who scored them. While historical data is not a perfect predictor of future performance, over the past few seasons the data shows that the number of FP scored remains fairly consistent.

It is always possible for players at a position to explode, and wreck the curve. However, AVT postulates that, more than likely, the distribution of FP will follow previous years’ distributions. This helps you limit the subjectivity of the projection process solely to the ranking of players. The Average Value Theory values will probably be incorrect. Not all of the players on your VBD list will achieve the exact number of FP that AVT assigns to them. Some will achieve more, and some less. However, the closer you come in ranking your players according to their relative output at the end of the season (i.e., you ranked Ahman Green #3 RB and he finished as the #3 RB) the closer your initial AVT VBD values should approximate actual results."

So what does this mean for us? It means that since we are are going to screw something up, we should limit the chances we give ourselves to do just that.

Here is a basic way to apply this theory; 1) Average the fantasy points scored by each player at each position over three years. Average the top RB score for three years, the second highest RB score for three years, and so on through all the positions that you feel will be drafted. Based on your league's number of starters you might have twenty QB, thirty RB, forty WR scores, and so on.

2) When you have all the average scores for each position, set them aside. Now go rank your players without looking at the average scores. Just write down the names in order you think they'll finish the season.

3) Plug the names back into your average scores, and calculate X numbers from there.

This process really helps you take some of the subjective feelings out of your projections, and frees you from the time consuming nature of making the projections in the first place. You can then concentrate on getting the players into their proper ranking.