Dynamic Drafting
Thursday, March 31, 2005
If you're really into this draft strategy stuff, you may want to think about dynamic value based drafting.
What you do for this system is adjust your X numbers (see value based drafting) based on your need for each position. It basically starts devaluing positions as you add more of that position to your roster.
Beware, this adds math functions that you may have to carry out during your draft. You might bring a laptop with a spreadsheet program, or at least a calculator. Either that or you can create a really big cheatsheet with all the math already done. I'd lean towards the former if you are good with spreadsheets and don't mind looking like the worlds biggest dork. The latter would be a good choice as long as you bring a big fat marker to the draft.
Back to the lecture at hand. Your X number gets multiplied by your need factor after each pick. If you pick a QB, you would then recalculate all your QB X numbers. This will lower the value of quarterbacks versus all the remaining positions.
This makes sense because if you can only start one QB, you shouldn't draft three in a row, even if their X numbers would suggest it.
Joe Bryant and David Dodds of Footballguys.com suggest this basic formula to adjust your numbers:
Have/ Start1_____ 2_____ 3_____ 4
0_______1.0____1.0____1.0____1.0
1_______0.8____1.0____1.0____1.0
2_______0.6____0.8____1.0____1.0
3_______0.4____0.6____0.8____1.0
4_______0.2____0.4____0.6____0.8
Multiply your X numbers by the given decimal to get your new dynamic X number. Or if you're taking the giant cheatsheet route, do it beforehand and list all the dynamic X numbers in different columns. After you draft a player mark off that whole column. That way you keep looking at the new numbers.

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