Don't Worry About It

You should realize that your draft will always look stupid after the season is over. That is why the real game starts after the draft.

Your top draft picks can only disappoint you. If they perform well, then they're doing what you expect. If they don't do as well as you projected, you feel upset.

Don't worry about it. Everyone is in the same boat. Everybody's breakout players come from later in the draft. The lower expectations create a situation where the player can pleasantly surprise you.

Does this mean that you should trade away your top pick for a chance at some mid round gems?

No.

Just make your projections, draft as best you can, and don't worry. If something goes wrong (and it will) you'll have a chance to fix it in free agency. There are always a couple of good players who show up in free agency, and can help you in your goal of getting to the playoffs.